reshaping Canada’s population is just a matter of flipping a few tax levers

 Subject: Your Ideas Don’t Hold Up, Peter

Peter,

You make it sound like reshaping Canada’s population is just a matter of flipping a few tax levers, but the reality isn’t that simple. Look at actual programs—real incentives have already been tested, and the results don’t back up your claims.

Take Smooth Rock Falls. In 2017, they rolled out a massive initiative—serviced lots at 90% below market value, plus three years of significant tax breaks. It got thousands of inquiries nationwide, and it did bring in new families. Property values shot up 144% (from $56,065 to $137,000). That’s as close to a textbook success as you’ll find, yet we’re not seeing a mass exodus from cities into places like this. If these extreme measures only moved a fraction of people, why would a tweak in income tax between Toronto and Huntsville suddenly do the trick?

Then there’s Cochrane, which just launched a similar program in 2023—offering $10 lots with property tax relief. The groundwork is done, but we don’t know yet if it’ll have a real impact. If your theory were airtight, these towns would be flooded with people by now. They’re not.

Same goes for your congestion tax idea. The 407 already proves that people will pay through the nose for convenience. A $40 toll for downtown SUVs? The rich won’t blink, but lower-income workers—who can’t afford to live downtown—will be the ones getting squeezed. That’s not fixing the problem, it’s just punishing the wrong people.

And immigration—throwing $20K a year at newcomers to move to Saskatchewan or Newfoundland doesn’t mean they’ll stay. Quebec has been trying (and failing) to keep immigrants in the province for years, despite incentives. Economic gravity wins every time.

You’re right that taxation is a powerful tool, but real-world evidence doesn’t support the idea that it can singlehandedly engineer population shifts. If it were that easy, these programs would have worked already.

• Edmundo

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