Trump and The UnderBelly

 Dear Mason

I hope this letter finds you well. I wanted to share some thoughts on an intriguing comparison I’ve been working on regarding the historical cycles of both China and the United States. As we know, both nations experience cyclical patterns of political, economic, and social upheaval, but their rhythms are quite different.

China seems to follow a roughly 50-year crisis cycle, marked by major events such as peasant uprisings, revolutions, and governmental crackdowns. Meanwhile, the United States operates on an 80-100-year cycle, aligned with the Fourth Turning theory by Strauss and Howe, as well as Turchin's Secular Cycles, which points to major conflicts every 80 years or so.

This got me thinking about how these cycles could intersect, especially in the context of the 2020s and 2030s. For example, the United States has gone through its own crises in the past, like the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and World War II, with another potential crisis looming on the horizon.

Mapping Chinese and American Cycles

In the case of China:

• During the 1850s-1860s, there was the Taiping Rebellion, a large-scale peasant uprising. Similarly, the U.S. faced the Civil War in the 1860s, marking a period of intense internal conflict.
• Fast forward to the 1940s-1950s, China saw the Communist Revolution, while the U.S. was deep into WWII and its postwar boom.
• In the 1960s-1970s, China was in the midst of the Cultural Revolution, and the U.S. dealt with the Vietnam War and Civil Rights unrest.
• By the 2020s, China faces economic turmoil, potential unrest over Taiwan, and perhaps another crackdown. The U.S., meanwhile, might be entering its Fourth Turning crisis, facing political instability and economic collapse.

Psychohistorical Theories Applied to Both Countries

Psychohistorical frameworks such as Strauss-Howe’s Fourth Turning, Turchin’s Secular Cycles, and Spengler’s theory of civilizational decline shed light on how these cycles might unfold:

1. Fourth Turning (Strauss-Howe): In the U.S., we are possibly in the midst of a Fourth Turning, a time of crisis that may result in a civil war, authoritarianism, or even geopolitical conflict by the 2020s-2030s. China’s own 50-year crisis cycle could synchronize with this global instability.

2. Secular Cycles (Turchin): Turchin’s theory suggests that when elites become too numerous and conflict with each other, political collapse is inevitable. China’s internal struggles between tech billionaires and party officials under Xi Jinping, and the U.S.’s growing wealth inequality and culture wars, both point to potential crises ahead.

3. Civilizational Decline (Spengler): According to Spengler, civilizations go through seasonal cycles: Spring (growth), Summer (peak power), Autumn (decay), and Winter (collapse). China is perhaps entering its "Winter," marked by stagnation, while the U.S. seems to be in late Autumn, where political dysfunction and cultural decay are becoming evident.

Predictions for the 2020s-2030s

For China, three potential scenarios include:

1. Crisis and Crackdown: Economic downturn leads to social unrest, and the Communist Party clamps down hard.
2. Reform and Opening: Facing a crisis, the government introduces reforms to stabilize the country.
3. War (Taiwan Crisis?): In the face of internal unrest, China could escalate tensions with Taiwan or the U.S. to rally the nation around a common enemy.

In the U.S., similar scenarios might unfold:

1. Internal Breakdown: Political violence escalates, leading to civil unrest or secession movements.
2. Rebirth and Reform: A national crisis forces significant systemic changes, leading to a new period of stability.
3. War: Rising tensions with China or internal conflict could spark a geopolitical or domestic war.

Conclusion: A Synchronized Global Crisis?

By comparing these cycles, it seems that both China and the U.S. may be on the verge of their most unstable periods in decades. The 2020s-2030s could see:

• Economic collapses
• Political crackdowns
• Social unrest or revolutions
• Potential U.S.-China conflict

The outcome of these crises depends on how both nations manage their internal contradictions and how global powers realign.

Thank you for your time and consideration. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on this fascinating intersection of historical cycles.

Warm regards,
                      Dr E. Scholz

#Psychohistory #ChinaCycles #AmericanCycles #FourthTurning #Cliodynamics #HistoricalPatterns #FutureTrends #Geopolitics #CivilizationalDecline #HistoryRepeats