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Wednesday, 30 April 2025

PHASE 3: Regionalization and Resource Wars

Expected: Dec 2025 – Mar 2026

Trade Fragmentation Accelerating
- April tariffs by Trump signal a global retreat from free trade.
- Retaliatory tariff threats from China and EU hint at formation of rival trade blocs.
Currency Bloc Whisperings
- BRICS+ nations continue pushing toward alternatives to the USD (e.g., gold-backed currency, digital yuan-ruble trade mechanisms).
Military Posturing Around Resources
- South China Sea tensions are rising again over rare earth deposits.
- Arctic Council deadlock due to Russian-Western split over resource rights.
Migration-Driven Border Pressure
- Southern Europe experiencing increased undocumented migration (from North Africa and Middle East), straining local services.
Food Nationalism & Protectionism
- India and Vietnam quietly restricting rice exports due to supply fears.
- Argentina reintroduces grain export caps.

Expected: April 2026 onward

Rise in Localized Economies & Barter Culture
- In Argentina and parts of West Africa, inflation has spurred informal barter and community currencies.
- Some U.S. cities experimenting with mutual aid economies or local scrips again (like post-2008).
Digital Decentralization
- Growing interest in privacy-focused, decentralized finance (DeFi) and off-grid communications (e.g., mesh networks).
- Usage of crypto for daily transactions increasing in hyperinflation-prone zones.
Security and Survival Focus
- Increase in personal security services and gated living in parts of Latin America and Eastern Europe.
- Surge in interest in prepper culture, urban homesteading, and DIY food production (U.S., Canada, Germany).

Phase	Signs Present?	Strength	Comments
Phase 3	✅ Some	⚠️ Weak to Moderate	Trade, resource, and migration tensions rising
Phase 4	⚠️ Proto-signals	🟡 Cultural & economic micro-trends	Not structural yet, but the mood is shifting